Urbanization and economic transformation are parallel, and China’s aluminum tube(Pneumatic cylinder tube) deep processing has entered a golden decade. Historical experience shows that the transformation of the economic development model will inevitably lead to in-depth changes in metal consumption structure. Manufacturing upgrades, consumption upgrades and the new economy promoted by China’s 12th Five-Year Plan have become the three major engines driving the structural adjustment of aluminum tubes(Aluminium Alloy Pipe). It is estimated that in the next ten years, China’s aluminum tube consumption compound growth rate will be about 10%, the growth rate of construction aluminum will slow down, while transportation, durable consumption, and the new economy will see rapid growth, and the consumption proportion will increase from 40% to more than 60% , And gradually move closer to the European and American model. Among them, high-speed rail, automotive aluminum profiles, and electronic foils will become one of the fastest-growing sub-sectors. The compound growth rate from 2010 to 2015 is expected to reach 15%-20%. Demand growth determines the medium and long-term growth space, and entry barriers determine the profitability of a company. Related leading companies will enjoy faster growth in performance brought about by industry growth through technical and channel barriers.
Manufacturing upgrades drove the growth of rail transit aluminum profiles (high-speed rail, automobiles) beyond expectations. The high-speed railway transportation makes the application of new alloy materials in the car body a trend. Shenwan Research believes that the inter-provincial operation density in China is expected to reach 0.7-1.0 vehicles/km from 2010 to 2020, and the inter-city operation density will reach 1.2-1.4 vehicles/km. According to the plan to reach 20,000 kilometers of main line high-speed rail and 24,000 kilometers of intercity railway in 2020, it is estimated that domestic EMU demand will exceed 1,100 trains per year in 2017, and approximately 100,000 tons of aluminum profiles will be consumed per year. Neutral assumptions will pull down the compound growth rate of aluminum profiles to 15%. Under optimistic assumptions, the compound growth rate of aluminum profiles from 2010 to 2015 will be as high as 25%, achieving explosive growth. The light weight of Chinese automobiles has provided an opportunity for the rapid growth of demand for aluminum profiles. The domestic automobile consumption of aluminum tubes will increase from 110 kg/unit in 2010 to 150 kg/unit in 2015. It is expected that by 2015, China’s domestic automotive aluminum Profiles will reach 500,000 tons, and the average growth rate from 2010 to 2015 will be as high as 20%.
Post time: Jul-15-2021