Market analysis agency Fitch International stated in its latest industry report that as global economic growth is expected to rebound, global aluminum demand is expected to experience a broader recovery.
Professional institutions predict that the price of aluminum in 2021 will be US$1,850/ton, which is higher than the US$1,731/ton during the covid-19 pandemic in 2020. The analyst predicts that China will increase the supply of aluminum, which will limit prices
Fitch predicts that as global economic growth is expected to rebound, global aluminum demand will see a broader recovery, which will help reduce oversupply.
Fitch predicts that by 2021, as exports have rebounded since September 2020, China’s supply to the market will increase. In 2020, China’s aluminum output hit a record high of 37.1 million tons. Fitch predicts that as China adds about 3 million tons of new production capacity and continues to climb toward the upper limit of 45 million tons per year, China’s aluminum production will increase by 2.0% in 2021.
As domestic aluminum demand slows in the second half of 2021, China’s aluminum imports will return to pre-crisis levels in the next few quarters. Although Fitch’s National Risk Group predicts that China’s GDP will achieve strong growth in 2021, it predicts that government consumption will be the only category of GDP expenditure in 2021, and the growth rate will be lower than 2020. This is because it is expected that the Chinese government may cancel any other stimulus measures and focus its efforts on controlling debt levels, which may prevent a surge in domestic aluminum demand in the future.
Post time: Apr-30-2021